ETHANOL IN BRAZIL: A PREDICTIVE PRICING APPROACH

Authors

  • Fabrício Bisset Silva de Brito
  • Leandro Brito Santos
  • Roberto Luiz Souza Monteiro
  • Everaldo Freitas Guedes

Keywords:

Ethanol, Commodities, Forecasting, Time Series

Abstract

The production of liquid biofuels has emerged as an alternative to the use of fossil fuels for transportation purposes. Ethanol is described as a renewable energy fuel. In 2021, Brazil produced 27.46% of the world's ethanol, ranking second among producing countries. The introduction of light commercial and passenger vehicles with Flex Fuel technology, which uses both Type C gasoline and hydrous ethanol, into the Brazilian market, began in March 2003, significantly impacting ethanol demand in the Brazilian consumer market. This study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of the ARFIMA, ARIMA, and Smoothed Exponential models for Brazilian ethanol prices over a four-year period.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56238/sevened2025.029-058

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Published

2025-08-28

Issue

Expanded Science: Innovation and Research

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Fabrício Bisset Silva de Brito, Leandro Brito Santos, Roberto Luiz Souza Monteiro, Everaldo Freitas Guedes

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

de Brito, F. B. S., Santos, L. B., Monteiro, R. L. S., & Guedes, E. F. . (2025). ETHANOL IN BRAZIL: A PREDICTIVE PRICING APPROACH. Seven Editora, 1003-1011. https://sevenpubl.com.br/editora/article/view/7920